Looks Like ‘Bad’ Polling, Again In New Jersey Race for Governor

A Harry Hurley Opinion - Editorial

In the 2021 race for Governor of New Jersey, the polls consistently showed Governor Phil Murphy with a large, double-digit lead over Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican Nominee. The polls were wrong.

I don’t recall even a single poll during the entire 2021 election that had Ciattarelli within reasonable striking distance. Yet, in reality the race was always a very close, margin of error race.

NOTE: Ciattarelli internal polls always had it as a very close race … however, those polls aren’t given credibility … even when they’re right.

Actual 2021 Results For Governor of New Jersey

Murphy = 51.2 percent

Ciattarelli = 48.0 percent

Murphy was the first Democrat to win reelection for Governor in 40 years.

In the 2021 election, Murphy and his running mate, the late Lieutenant Governor Sheila Oliver, defeated the Republican ticket of Jack Ciattarelli and former New Jersey State Senator Diane Allen.

By comparison, Murphy won the 2017 election with 56 percent of the vote to 41.9 percent for former Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno.

Guadagno was distinctly hampered by the extraordinarily unpopular former Governor Chris Christie. Guadagno never stood a chance against Murphy.

Ciattarelli Was a Victim of Bad Polling in 2021

It’s fair to say this because the inaccurate polling data of the 2021 election cycle hurt Ciatterelli’s fundraising and it directly caused the Republican National Committee (RNC) to avoid the race altogether.

The RNC and others spent their time, money and effort on Glenn Youngkin in the Commonwealth of Virginia, who did upset former Governor Terry McAuliffe in the 2021 election.

Had the so-called Republican experts realized how close the Murphy-Ciattarelli race really was … they would have provided Ciattarelli with a proper level of support.

Ciattarelli kept telling them that it was a close, single digit race. They wouldn’t listen. Because the so-called objective polls said otherwise.

Here’s The First Poll of The 2025 & It Makes Absolutely No Sense

Somehow, Democrat Mikie Sherrill, who almost no one in New Jersey even knows … allegedly has a large lead over Ciattarelli in the first poll of the 2025 race for Governor of New Jersey.

Less than 24 hours after the Primary Election ended, a national Democrat education group that supports Sherrill released a poll.

The group is called Democrats for Education Reform, a left-leaning group. They commissioned a SurveyUSA poll, which was taken prior to Primary Election Day.

Sherrill allegedly has a 13-point advantage over Ciattarelli, 51%-38%, among likely voters, with 12 percent of respondents saying that they were undecided.

This sampling of public opinion took place between May 28-30, 2025.

It has been since 1965 that either political party has won three Gubernatorial elections in-a-row in New Jersey.

Which Philosophy Will Win - Patriotism or Protests?

It will be an interesting national backdrop in the run-up to the November 4, 2025 General Election … as Republicans are pushing patriotism, while Democrats are busy protesting across America.

Epilog

New Jersey is the most densely populated state in America, with more than 9 million residents.

It is very hard to become well known in The Garden State. It takes many years.

Mikie Sherrill is barely known on a statewide basis in New Jersey and there is absolutely no way that she holds a commanding 13-point lead over Jack Ciattarelli.

Ciattarelli has worked for more than a decade to develop his overall name recognition in New Jersey.

My considered opinion is that this is a political stunt to create buzz and bogus inevitability for Sherrill that does not logically exist at this time.

Many fell for this in 2021. Don’t fall for it, again in 2025.