Monday: From Snow to Sun

The northern half of New Jersey is waking up to a healthy coating of the snow on the ground. Snow showers overnight impacted the area along and north of Interstate 195, with upwards of an inch of fresh snow on the ground in North Jersey. Road conditions seem OK, especially on major (treated) roadways. Just some conversational snow making this morning white and bright.

There are still a few spot snow showers yet to drift through the Garden State. By mid-morning Monday, skies will really start clearing to sunshine again.

So your Monday is going to look very similar to Sunday, with mostly sunny skies. It will be breezy (sustained 10 to 20 mph), but not as windy (gusts to 50 mph Sunday). And temperatures will end up on the mild side of normal, peaking in the 45 to 50 degree range for most of the state. Certainly still jacket weather, especially considering the breeze and snow coverage. But not bad by early January standards.

Clouds will thicken up again Monday night. Low temperatures will end up in the chilly upper 20s to lower 30s.

Tuesday: From Rain to Snow

Tuesday will start quiet. It will be mostly cloudy to overcast, and I can't rule out some early showers. High temperatures will reach the lower to mid 40s across the bulk of New Jersey.

Then our next storm system will arrive from the southwest Tuesday afternoon. It's almost a mini storm system — compact, fast-moving, and coming at us from a pretty weird angle.

Temperatures are everything here. Again, I'm thinking thermometers will be in the 40s at onset, which would suggest a rainy start. But as the air cools and as Tuesday evening falls, we could very well see a transition to snow.

It's not a surprise that forecast models are all over the place regarding the snow accumulation potential here. Totals as low as zero. Totals as high as about 3.5" for interior South Jersey. Given my latest estimation of temperatures (both at the surface and aloft), I'm leaning toward the low side of that range — in other words, snow potential will be limited

It's definitely worth watching, especially since there could be some wet/wintry impacts for Tuesday evening's rush hour. If necessary (i.e. snow totals over 2 inches), I will put out a snow forecast map by Tuesday morning.

The Rest of the Week: From Cold to Warm

Beyond the potential rain and snow, Wednesday will bring a mix of sun and clouds and a brisk wind (northwesterly gusts to 35 mph). With highs only in the upper 30s, the wind chill ("feels like" or "apparent" temperature) in the 20s. A snow shower may drift into New Jersey at some point during the daytime hours on Wednesday too.

High pressure will be directly overhead on Thursday, leading to calm winds and quiet weather. However, it's a pretty cold air mass, so high temperatures will be limited to the mid 30s or so — below seasonal norms, for sure. Early sunshine will eventually lead to clouds Thursday afternoon, as the high shifts off-shore.

That's the bottom of the barrel though, as a big warmup will take us into the weekend. Thermometers will top out between about 45 (north) and 55 (south) degrees on Friday. Skies will be mostly cloudy, and a chance of rain will arrive late-day Friday.

That rain will be the result of a (very) slow-moving cold front, which will keep scattered rain on top of us on Saturday. It won't be a washout though — between raindrops, the start of the weekend will be breezy and downright warm. High temperatures Saturday afternoon should pop into the 60s!

As it stands now, things turn around on Sunday. Still some rain showers early, before temperatures fall from the 50s to around 40 by Sunday afternoon.

The long-term weather forecast really is not conducive for big snow here in New Jersey. Of course, we're always watching the horizon, but don't expect much wintry weather in the next couple of weeks.

The Zarrow Boys: From Two to Three

So... The docile weather happens to present a great time to welcome a new weather-baby to the world!

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As you may know, my wife and I are expecting our third baby boy this month. Therefore, this is scheduled to be my last weather blog before I take about 3 weeks off for paternity leave — to tie up loose ends before baby, to support my wife and manage our other two children around baby's birth day, and then to bond with our new son.

I realize that the middle of winter is an inconvenient time for a meteorologist to take paternity leave. But Mother Nature had other plans, I suppose. Our team will have your forecast well-covered both on-air and online. And in case a winter storm enters the forecast, I'm ready to step back in as needed.

I look forward to sharing the news of our new arrival in the coming days. Thanks for your support, and see you soon!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.