The Bottom Line

New Jersey's weather over the past few days has been rather tumultuous. We went from a summerlike 90 degrees late last week, to a dreary and stormy Saturday, to a warm and pleasant Sunday. Now we have some much-needed rain and fog around the state Monday morning. But aside from that, it will be a fairly quiet week of weather.

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Monday

The day will start inclement, but end bright n' breezy.

We start Monday morning with some spotty showers, pretty much limited to the northern half of the state as of this writing. There are some pockets of steadier, heavier rain — so you may need to flip your windshield wipers to "High" during the early commute. Fog and drizzle are also present across all corners of New Jersey, with visibility down to a mile in spots.

Keep in mind, these are much-needed raindrops after our recent wildfire outbreaks and spiraling drought concerns.

By around 10 a.m. Monday, we should substantially dry out and start to clear. That's because a cold front — the leading edge of a new air mass — will push west to east across New Jersey around that time.

Monday afternoon, the sun should pop out. And we'll pick up a stiff westerly breeze, on the order of 20+ mph.

Temperatures are starting in the 50s — you may or may not need a jacket to start the day.

Even with the arrival of a cooler air mass and early clouds, highs should push into the mid 60s on average. That is slightly cooler than Sunday, but still slightly warmer than normal for mid-April.

Monday night stays quiet, with mainly clear skies and a lighter breeze. Low temperatures will dip into the 40s by Tuesday morning — probably no frost/freeze concerns (yet).

Tuesday

Probably the coolest day of the week. And the prominent westerly breeze will still be here and quite noticeable.

Having said that, I don't think you'll find any big weather issues on Tuesday. Jacket weather in the morning. And then expect 55 to 60 degrees in the afternoon, with partial sunshine.

Wednesday

It is worth mentioning that the forecast gets a bit tricky on Wednesday, as model guidance diverges about just how fast and furious our next warmup will begin.

I can tell you with some confidence that Wednesday morning will be particularly chilly. Low temperatures will drop into the 30s for most of the state. Areas of frost are possible for the first time in about a week.

I do like what I'm seeing for the rest of Wednesday, with good sunshine and a lighter breeze in the forecast. High temperatures will be around 60 — but there is a lot of "give and take" in that number for now.

Thursday

Thursday is a strong candidate to be the nicest day of the week. Sunshine will meet fair-weather clouds, a fresh breeze, and warm temperatures. Most of the state will push back into the 70s. 80 is a possibility in urban northeastern NJ and inland South Jersey.

However, I am concerned about a prominent on-shore breeze kicking up Thursday afternoon, limiting warmth along the coast. As we have discussed, this is a typical springtime phenomenon — ocean water temperatures are still only in the lower 50s.

The Extended Forecast

Friday also looks warm and pleasant, with the same sea breeze concerns. Clouds will also increase throughout the day. And I can't rule out a shower clipping the state late.

The weekend will turn unsettled again, as our next cold front approaches. At the moment, the best chance of rain looks to be Saturday evening through Sunday morning. There could be some downpours and thunderstorms in play — we will pinpoint those impacts once the weekend gets closer.

Temperatures will descend once again, from near 80 on Friday and Saturday, to the 60s on Sunday, to potentially 50s into early next week.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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