A Ping-Pong Forecast for NJ: Next Five Days Alternate 70s and 80s
As our atmosphere thoroughly dried out on Tuesday, our weather turned brighter, more comfortable, and more pleasant. Once again, I offer a forecast that is way more nice than not, with only two minor chances of rain. We're literally going back and forth between 70s and 80s and 70s and 80s and 70s through the end of the weekend.
Wednesday morning is chilly, thanks to low humidity and calm winds. Temperatures are mainly in the 50s, with 40s sprinkled in throughout the usual cool spots (higher elevations and Pine Barrens). Our forecast calls for high temperatures in the mid 70s Wednesday afternoon — a few degrees cooler than Tuesday, and a few degrees warmer than normal for late September. Bright sunshine and dry weather will combine with light winds to make for yet another beautiful day.
One more piece of good news: Our rip current risk has finally decreased from High to Moderate. Ocean wave heights Wednesday will be around 3 to 4 feet.
Skies will remain mostly clear for Wednesday night. I'm calling it comfortably cool, as it won't be as chilly as Tuesday night. Look for low temps in the lower 60s.
If Wednesday is the ping, then Thursday is the pong. It is admittedly a tricky forecast to really pinpoint, due to a cold front set to pass through the state in the afternoon hours. Temperatures will warm into the lower 80s for most of New Jersey — in far North Jersey, we probably won't make it beyond the mid 70s. You'll catch sunshine early and late Thursday, with some clouds in the middle. An occasional stiff breeze will blow as our cooler, drier air mass arrives.
And there is a chance of rain. But this front is going to be pretty moisture-starved. Most model guidance is still showing a mainly dry (NAM / Euro) to totally dry (GFS) day. I think it's prudent to include rain showers in the forecast for mainly northern NJ between about Noon and 5 p.m. Thursday. Farther south, including the Jersey Shore and South Jersey, I doubt you'll see anything more than an isolated shower or sprinkle.
Beyond the front, you'll find a cooldown for Friday. Morning temperatures will once again dip into the 50s, with afternoon highs in the mid 70s. Looks like a lovely day to me.
In general, the weekend looks good too. Saturday will be the warmer day, as high temps return to the lower 80s. It looks like a few rain showers will push through the Garden State early and late on Saturday — but nothing worth writing home about here. On Sunday, we cool back down to the mid 70s again under gradually clearing skies.
Early next week stays quiet and seasonably cool, while long-range models show a big warmup by late next week.
In the tropics, newly-downgraded Post Tropical Cyclone Jerry will pass over Bermuda late Wednesday night. Tropical Storm Karen dumped upwards of 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and is now entering a U-turn maneuver in the middle of the Atlantic. And confidence is growing that newly-upgraded Hurricane Lorenzo will turn northward before impacting any land masses.